ABERDEEN PROVING GROUND, MD – In a decisive move to maintain military superiority, the Secretary of War directed a fundamental transformation of the department’s acquisition process. This mandate requires a new approach to deliver critical capabilities to troops in the field with greater speed and urgency. The new paradigm needs enablers that mitigate risks in equipment programs, particularly in system reliability and long-term sustainment—factors that account for up to 70 percent of a weapon system’s total cost. As organizations accelerate timelines and reduce full-up system testing programs, they must adopt approaches that ensure system robustness and mitigate risk. The following menu of options provides program managers, acquisition personnel, and sustainment professionals with the tools they need today.
Early Engineering Component Analysis
Engineers perform rapid analysis for individual components long before a full system reaches large-scale operational tests. By using advanced simulators and lab environments, engineers find and fix potential failure points early in the design process when they can make modifications most simply and inexpensively. This proactive approach streamlines final system-level testing, saving both time and resources and is applicable to both Commercial-Off-The-Shelf systems/components and developmental items.
Modeling and Simulation
Modeling and Simulation (M&S) serves as one of the most powerful and inexpensive tools for accelerating development. Digital testing—covering everything from vehicle dynamics to the thermal performance of electronics—allows for the rapid exploration of designs before manufacturers build a physical part. In one instance, M&S predicted that a circuit card’s original design would lead to over 300 component failures. A simple, validated redesign reduced displacement by approximately 80 percent, avoiding a costly delay.
Scorecards and Engineering Reviews
The Transformation Decision Analysis Center (TDAC) developed reliability scorecards for weapon systems and artificial intelligence applications based on leading practices from industry, government, and academia. These scorecards, along with early engineering reviews, provide substantial risk mitigation—even for commercial off-the-shelf systems—by using existing information to identify challenges before they emerge.
Leveraging All Data Sources
To make the most informed decisions, programs must leverage all available data. By using Bayesian-based statistical approaches, organizations create a more complete picture of system performance and potentially reduce the need for physical testing by 60 percent or more.
Mastering Modern Complexity
Today’s military systems increasingly feature complex, software-intensive designs. Systems-Theoretic Process Analysis (STPA), a modern hazard analysis technique from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, analyzes these systems effectively. It identifies risks that emerge from the complex interactions between components, rather than just individual failures—a crucial step for developing robust autonomous and AI-enabled platforms.
Function-Based Reliability
Ultimately, mission performance dominates. A function-based assessment places test results into an operational context. This approach prioritizes risk mitigation by connecting system performance directly to the essential tasks soldiers perform, ensuring development always focuses on what matters most for mission success.
Fielding at the Speed of Relevance
The transformation of the acquisition system serves as an urgent and necessary step to equip U.S. forces for the future. This mandate does not call for cutting corners; rather, it requires us to be smarter and more proactive. By embracing these risk-reduction strategies, we empower the acquisition workforce to manage risk intelligently and deliver superior capabilities to the warfighter with speed and relevance. To meet the department’s objectives, TDAC continues to provide proven methods to minimize reliability, acquisition, and sustainment risks alongside partners such as the Army Test and Evaluation Command and various Army DEVCOM centers.
By David Mortin, Ph.D.
